[Air-l] new technologies: diffusion

[Nathaniel Poor]

Just to add a thought to the conversation, and maybe this has been 
mentioned somewhere but I missed it, with regards to electronic 
communication technologies, the faster diffusion rates (which also 
depend on when you peg the beginning of the technology, I think 
Winston's "Media, Technology, and Society" talks about that) must be 
considered in their historical context.

So, yes cell phones diffused quickly (at least recently), but they 
diffused in a world awash with and, importantly, used to, electronic 
communication techs (ECTs). The same is true of other techs. It seems 
that more recent ECTs have diffused faster, and if the 
electronically-awash world (the historical setting) is having an 
effect, it will help faster diffusion rates. I doubt it explains all of 
it, but perhaps it explains some.

So the DVD diffused rapidly, but a similar technology, videodiscs, 
failed to diffuse. (Clearly there are reasons for this.) VCRs diffused 
at a certain pace, but tape-based television recording was tried in the 
50s, 60s, and early 70s before Betamax and VHS were rolled out. Does 
one say "this technology" meaning a specific embodiment? If so, first 
generation cell phones are not the same as those new phones with 
cameras in them. Defining a starting point for a technology is 
difficult and will depend on the research question, but since so many 
technologies these days are actually technological systems, they have a 
large number of components with different histories, and the ideas 
behind those components have different histories as well.

So, the Internet, do we measure it from 1993(?), or 1969, or on earlier 
ideas? Of course "the Internet" of 2003 is not "the Internet" of 1993.

ndp...


On Thursday, November 13, 2003, at 06:59 PM, Collette Snowden wrote:

> >Bernie Hogan wrote
> #1 DVD is diffusing faster than the Internet, as is the mobile phone 
> in many
> places. It is not unprecedented. Furthermore, the diffusion curve here
> suggests that television might have been as steep
>
>  
> Hi all,
>  
> I must support Bernie Hogan's point about the mobile/cellular phone - 
> I am constantly looking for data on mobile/cellular phone uptake and 
> penetration rates ( because it is changing so fast) and everything I 
> see -  while quite variable -  is consistent in showing 
> that mobile/cellular is far outstripping the Internet in terms of 
> speed of uptake and penetration.
>  
> (I have a article I wrote about this issue in 1999, if anyone is 
> interested contact me directly and I will send you details.)
>  
> In many places such as China, India, and Africa the lack or 
> inadequacy of existing telecommunications infrastructure naturally 
> means that the Internet cannot be adopted (  there is no access to 
> fixed line for dial-up Internet connection, let alone Broadband), 
> whereas new mobile networks offer people  relatively cheap access to 
> basic communications service and with 3G beginning to roll out mobile 
> internet becomes more viable.
>  
> The Financial Times ( author -Tobias Buck) reported on November 9 ( 
> Europe Section. p.6)  that  EU mobile phone use tops 80% of populace
> This report notes penetration rates are now fast approaching 90 per 
> cent in many EU member states. In Luxembourg, the total number of 
> mobile phones now exceeds the number of inhabitants, with 115 phones 
> for every 100 citizens.
>
> The ITU has regular data for the world which might be useful to many, 
> with some free data available, see
>  
> http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.html
>  
> and with data on most countries and regions also available via the ITU 
> on an annual basis.
>  
> On a related note, the postings on this subject remind me of how we 
> need to be careful about the use of statistics and the representation 
> of data - but that is a whole other thread! For those in Europe with 
> an interest in this area the ITU is having a Statistical workshop in 
> conjuction with the World Summit on Information Society organized by:
> UNECE, UNCTAD, ITU, UNESCO Inst. of Statistics, OECD, Eurostat
>  
> "Monitoring the Information Society: Data, Measurement and Methods"
> (Geneva, 8-9 December 2003) See;
> http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2003.12.wsis.htm
>  
> For information about the ITU policy on this subject see:
>  
> http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/update/edito.htm
>  
>  
> ( I am still looking for the perfect graph, and if I ever find it I 
> promise to post it immediately!)
>  
> Collette Snowden
> School of Communication, Information and New Media
> University of South Australia
>  
>
>
>  
>  
>  
>
>
>
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>
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--------------------------------------------------------------------
Nathaniel D. Poor
Ph.D. Candidate
Dept. of Communication Studies
The University of Michigan
http://www.umich.edu/~natpoor
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