[Air-l] Pew Internet Report on the Future of the Internet

[J. J.]

This could be of some interest to our group.
Jarek

>From: "Amanda Lenhart" <alenhart at pewinternet.org>
>To: japeks at hotmail.com
>Subject: Pew Internet Report on the Future of the Internet
>Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 11:36:33 -0500
>
>A wide-ranging survey of technology leaders, scholars, industry
>officials, and analysts finds that most internet experts expect attacks
>on the network infrastructure in the coming decade as the internet
>becomes more embedded in everyday and commercial life.
>
>
>
>For the full report, please visit:
>
>http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/145/report_display.asp
>
>
>
>Some 66% of the experts responding to a survey by the Pew Internet &
>American Life Project and Elon University agreed with the following
>prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10
>years on the networked information infrastructure or the country's power
>grid.
>
>
>
>In addition, there was notable agreement among the 1,286 experts in this
>survey that in the next 10 years the internet will be more deeply
>integrated in our physical environments and high-speed connections will
>proliferate - with mixed results. They believe the dawning of the blog
>era will bring radical change to the news and publishing industry and
>they think the internet will have the least impact on religious
>institutions.
>
>
>
>Some other predictions with which a majority of respondents agreed:
>
>
>
>*	59% of these experts agreed with a prediction that more
>government and business surveillance will occur as computing devices
>proliferate and become embedded in appliances, cars, phones, and even
>clothes.
>*	57% of them agreed that virtual classes will become more
>widespread in formal education and that students might at least
>occasionally be grouped with others who share their interests and
>skills, rather than by age.
>*	56% of them agreed that as telecommuting and home-schooling
>expand, the boundary between work and leisure will diminish and family
>dynamics will change because of that.
>*	50% of them believe that anonymous, free, music file-sharing on
>peer-to-peer networks will still be easy to perform a decade from now.
>
>
>
>At the same time, there were stark disagreements among experts about
>whether internet use would foment a rise in religious and political
>extremist groups, whether internet use would usher in more participation
>in civic organizations, and whether the widespread adoption of
>technology in the health system would ameliorate the most knotty
>problems in the system such as rising costs and medical errors.
>
>
>
>"Nobody knows for sure what lies ahead - and the history of the internet
>has taught us to expect the unexpected - but this group of experts
>provides the perspective of long experience. Half were online before the
>advent of the Web," said Susannah Fox, associate director of the Pew
>Internet Project and lead author of the report. "Institutions that
>resist change, like education and health care, come in for the sharpest
>criticism among these information revolutionaries."
>
>
>
>The experts were relatively unconvinced about two suggested impacts of
>the internet related to democratic politics and processes:
>
>
>
>*	Just 32% of these experts agreed that people would use the
>internet to support their political biases and filter out information
>that disagrees with their views. Half the respondents disagreed with or
>disputed that prediction.
>*	Only 32% agreed with a prediction that online voting would be
>secure and widespread by 2014. Half of the respondents disagreed or
>disputed that idea.
>
>
>
>The survey was conducted online survey between September 20 and November
>1, 2004. It grew out of an effort by the Pew Internet Project and the
>Elon University School of Communications to look at predictions made
>about the impact of the internet in the period between 1990 and 1995. A
>database of more than 4,000 predictions and commentary by experts is
>available at http://www.elon.edu/predictions/ and those who go to the
>site are invited to make their own predictions. The predictions from
>this survey are being added to the database.
>
>
>
>"We were struck by the prescience of many experts at the dawning of the
>Web era about the way the internet would affect people and
>organizations," said Asst. Prof. Janna Quitney Anderson, a co-author of
>the report and lead organizer of the predictions database. "It just made
>sense to us to go back to many of them and ask what they foresee in the
>next decade. And they see dramatic change in many realms - some of it
>good, some of it not-so-good."
>
>
>
>The Pew-Elon survey asked the experts to describe what dimensions of
>online life in the past decade have caught them by surprise. Similarly,
>we asked about the changes they thought would occur in the last decade,
>but have not really materialized. Their answers:
>
>
>
>Pleasant surprises: These experts are in awe of the development of the
>Web and the explosion of information sources on top of the basic
>internet backbone. They also said they were amazed at the improvements
>in online search technology, the spread of peer-to-peer networks, and
>the rise of blogs.
>
>
>
>Unpleasant surprises: They are startled that educational institutions
>have changed so little, despite widespread expectation a decade ago that
>schools would be quick to embrace change. They are unhappy that gaps
>exist in internet access for many groups - those with low income, those
>with lower levels of educational attainment, and those in rural areas.
>And they still think there is a long way to go before political
>institutions will benefit from the internet.
>
>
>
>The Pew Internet Project is a non-partisan, non-profit initiative of the
>Pew Research Center that researches the social impact of the internet.
>The Project does not advocate policy solutions or take positions on
>policy issues.
>
>
>
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