[Air-L] Internet Time Re: The slow decay of mySpace?

[Robert Cannon]

--- Martin Garthwaite <marting at gmail.com> wrote:
> Lois,
> 
> This highlights another problem, with radio and
> television it was relatively
> easy to identify technological stabilization; in
> internet time (whatever
> that is?) will it ever be possible to identify
> technological stabilization?

There is a chart that goes around communications
circles.  It plots the adoption rate for for PCs,
Color TV, VCRs, Internet, and Broadband, and what
level of adoption is reached within the first 5 years
on the market.  This chart is usually pulled out in
response to the argument that broadband adoption is
slow.  What the chart reveals, relevant to the
broadband argument, is that broadband adoption is on
par with the other technological adoption rates.

You can see one version of this chart at NTIA
https://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/NationOnlineBroadband04.htm
 See Figure 2
https://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/NationOnlineBroadband04_files/image003.gif
 John Horrigan at Pew Internet has an up to date
version of the chart that goes out to 10 years with
the same trend lines.

What this chart also reveals is that Internet adoption
is NOT faster than other technology adoptions.  The
concept that "Internet Time" is entirely different
than other technologies such as TV is not really well
supported.  What is happening on the Internet may be
new, but the advent of other technologies brought on
their own periods of innovation, disruption, and
uncertainty much like the Internet era.

B

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