[Air-L] Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-users-study-says/#ixzz2rSfZNmEo

[Ellis Godard]

Growth beyond 2017, or even a drop less than 80%, would contest the
prediction - but also the model, and perhaps the label, right?

There are a large number of ideas, companies, and organizations one continue
to thrive despite their being considered a disease. ;)

> -----Original Message-----
> From: air-l-bounces at listserv.aoir.org [mailto:air-l-
> bounces at listserv.aoir.org] On Behalf Of Joly MacFie
> Sent: Saturday, January 25, 2014 4:55 PM
> To: Researchers
> Cc: Dave Farber
> Subject: [Air-L] Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says
> Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says |
> TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-
> 80-of-its-users-study-says/#ixzz2rSfZNmEo
> 
> http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-
> its-users-study-says/
> 
> Facebook's growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an
> infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say
> Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles
> of social media.
> 
> Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and
> subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at
> Princeton's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a
> study released Jan. 17.
> The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on
> disease spread to assume that "recovery" requires contact with a
> nondiseased member - i.e., a nonuser of Facebook ("recovered" member of
> the
> population) - researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid
> decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between
> 2015 and 2017.
> 
> Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as
> their peers lose interest - if the model is correct. "Ideas, like
> diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before
> eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with
> epidemiological models,"
> write the researchers.
> 
> You can check out the full study here.
> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf
> 
> --
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