[Assam] From Outlook India

[Chan Mahanta]

The following by Wasbir Hussain from Outlook India:

cm



ASSAM
Speaking In Tongues
New Delhi has come up with an Independence Day gambit in Assam . by 
suddenly suspending Army operations against the outlawed ULFA, but as 
usual, the right hand of the government seems not to know what the 
left is doing.
WASBIR HUSSAIN
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New Delhi has come up with an Independence Day gambit in Assam . On 
Sunday, August 13, 2006, central authorities suddenly suspended Army 
operations against the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom 
(ULFA) at a time when the insurgent group was engaged in a routine 
stepping up of violence ahead of Independence Day. Specifically, the 
Sunday announcement came hours after ULFA rebels shot and killed a 
petty trader in Joypur town, in the eastern district of Dibrugarh, 
hurled a grenade at the private residence of a senior Assam minister 
at Digboi in the adjacent Tinsukia district (the minister was present 
but there was no casualties), and made an abortive grenade attack on 
the police in the western district town of Nalbari. In ten days, 
beginning August 4, 2006, the ULFA had launched several grenade or 
bomb attacks, killing a dozen people, including six security 
personnel, five of them of the Assam Police, and injured up to 40 
others.

  Assam Chief Secretary S. Kabilan, who also heads the policy-making 
Strategy Group of the Unified Command Headquarters of the Army, 
Police and Paramilitary Forces in the state, was quick to confirm the 
central government's decision to suspend Army operations. "Offensive 
action against ULFA will remain suspended for 10 days in a goodwill 
gesture by the government," he told this writer late Sunday night. He 
clarified though that it cannot be called a ceasefire yet. Pressed 
for the immediate reasons for this go-slow order to the Army, Kabilan 
said, "There may have been some positive feelers from the other 
side." He did not elaborate, but his comment did indicate that the 
ULFA on its own or the People's Consultative Group (PCG), the 
11-member peace panel appointed by the rebel outfit, may have 
succeeded in convincing New Delhi that such a gesture would result in 
the insurgent group reciprocating by putting violence on hold.

  There was, however, significant evidence of confusion and a wide 
diversity of perceptions within the government. On the morning of 
August 14, the Assam Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, told this writer, 
"This is certainly a unilateral ceasefire. There can be no other 
meaning to a suspension of operations by the government." He added, 
however, that "We cannot lower our vigilance. Day to day policing 
will go on," and further, "The ball is now in ULFA's court, and it 
must respond positively and come forward for talks, now that the 
government has taken this major initiative."

  The government's decision to halt Army operations before 
Independence Day, that too, when the ULFA has called for a boycott of 
the celebrations and has sought to enforce it through a 17-hour 
general strike beginning 1 a.m. on August 15, is certainly 
significant. The ULFA would now be under tremendous pressure to 
reciprocate and enter into the process of direct talks with New 
Delhi. Over the past few weeks, civil society organizations in Assam 
have been vocal in asking the government to act first and take some 
major initiatives, like a temporary ceasefire, to break the current 
impasse over the holding of direct ULFA-New Delhi talks. At a civil 
society Round Table last fortnight organized by Gauhati University, 
the state's premier institution for higher learning, a resolution was 
adopted urging the government of India to initiate immediate steps 
like a ceasefire, that would 'have to be reciprocated' by the ULFA. 
Another resolution called for the release of five top ULFA leaders, 
all members of the group's highest policy-making body, the central 
executive committee.

ULFA has been seeking their release so that it could discuss the 
issue of entering into direct talks with New Delhi and take things 
forward.

  Groups like the PCG itself have been drawing flak, just like several 
other components of the State's disjointed civil society, for not 
condemning violence by the militants in the same way as they condemn 
killing of rebels by security forces engaged in counter-insurgency 
operations. On August 13, 2006, however, the PCG issued a significant 
press statement where it called upon both the ULFA and the government 
to maintain restraint for the sake of peace in Assam, and condemned 
the killing of innocent people by the two sides. "The acts of 
violence since the peace process started have hurt the PCG," the 
statement said. This plain and straightforward condemnation of 
violence and killing of innocent people by the PCG, whose members 
were hand-picked by the ULFA in September 2005, and the group's 
decision to meet with India's National Security Adviser and Home 
Secretary in New Delhi by August 16, 2006, does indicate that the two 
sides could actually be working overtime to put violence on hold and 
start direct talks.

  There have, however, been several roadblocks thus far, obstructing a 
possible face-to-face meeting between the ULFA and the government of 
India:
	* 	New Delhi has asked ULFA to name its negotiating 
team. ULFA says the team  cannot be named unless five of its top 
detained leaders are freed.
	* 	New Delhi has asked ULFA to give its consent for the 
talks in writing.  ULFA responded by saying the government must also 
state in writing that it  would discuss the group's key demand of 
'sovereignty'.
	* 	ULFA has demanded information on the whereabouts of 
14 of its cadres  'missing' after the Bhutanese military assault in 
December 2003.
	* 	Charges and counter-charges of violence and excesses 
by both sides.

It is possible that, over the past few days, back-channel contacts 
may have been established between the ULFA and the government, either 
directly or otherwise, facilitating an understanding to remove some 
of these bottlenecks.

  Over the coming ten days, it is likely that a contact mechanism will 
be put in place and New Delhi could even grant 'safe passage' to some 
ULFA leaders to emerge from hiding and meet with key government 
officials to prepare the modalities for talks. ULFA could also 
reciprocate this time round, taking the public mood against all forms 
of violence into account, and arrive at an understanding with the 
government on the crucial issue of a truce, an essential element to 
take a peace process forward.

  But, once again, the government of India has goofed up things by 
failing to speak in one voice on crucial issues. Till late Sunday 
afternoon, the Assam government was not aware of New Delhi's 
decision. The General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the Army's 
Tezpur-based IV Corps, who heads the operations under the Unified 
Headquarters, got in touch with the state police chief, but the 
latter apparently told him he had no instructions from the state 
government. Even in New Delhi, officials of the ministry of home 
affairs were not forthcoming on the matter, indicating the decision 
was taken at some other level. By late night, however, key officials 
started talking on the same lines, confirming that a temporary halt 
to Army operations had been ordered. The need for the government to 
speak in a cohesive voice is of utmost importance to avoid confusing 
signals from going out.

  The decision to go for a ten-day halt to Army operations, which have 
been on almost continuously in Assam since November 1990, with only 
brief breaks in between, has the potential to actually put the ULFA 
on the defensive.If the rebel group does not respond positively this 
time around, the odds may well go against it as never before.

Wasbir Hussain is a Guwahati-based Political Analyst and Associate 
Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi. the South Asia 
Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal