[Assam] Article

[hiten mahanta]

*AGP: in search of a winnable leader
— Ranen Kumar Goswami*
*A* political party, out of power after tasting it once, looks at the seat
of power with the greedy eyes of a cat hungry for fish, the Asom Gana
Parishad (AGP) cannot be an exception. Not that it's a fault as, in a
democracy, all parties conforming to the rules set by the system, have a
constitutional right to join the chase for power. Janata Bhavan has eluded
the AGP since 2001. In 2006, a wrong assessment of the situation, coupled
with a wave artificially created in the pages of a section of newspapers,
injected an illusion of electoral victory in the minds of AGP leadership,
but that was not to be. AGP president Brindabon Goswami, who was more a
Chief Ministerial candidate of one or two newspapers than his party, had
eventually to become the leader of Opposition in Assam Assembly. One-term
starvation is enough for a party, but for the AGP the 2006 defeat has
prolonged the starvation to two terms at a stretch. This perhaps explains
its restlessness for the much-hyped unification move.

Many virtues (and vices too) are required to be the leader of a political
party in a parliamentary democracy. But the most important of them is
winnability in elections, usually a party is ready to swim with its leader,
but not sink with him or her, the most glaring example of this being Indira
Gandhi, the former Prime Minister. In the 1977 Lok Sabha polls the
Indira-led Congress was voted out of power. Indira was thrown out of the
party and the Indira Congress was born. The new-born Congress captured power
in 1980 and as a result regained recognition as the original Congress. Same
proclivities can be noticed inside the AGP too, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta's
leadership started facing a challenge from senior party leaders Brindabon
Goswami, Bhrigu Kumar Phukan and others as soon as the AGP was ousted from
power with the imposition of President's Rule in Assam in 1990, the party
split with the breakaway faction being called the Natun Asom Gana Parishad
(NAGP). None of them came to power in the 1991 Assembly elections. The
Congress bagged 66 seats with 29.93 per cent votes while the AGP got 19
seats and 17.93 per cent votes. The NAGP secured just 5.45 per cent votes
with five seats, electoral defeat is a great unifying force. The NAGP came
back and dissolved itself in the AGP.

The AGP, an offspring of the Assam movement, struck an electoral alliance
with die-hard opponents of the movement, CPI and CPI-M in the 1996 Assembly
polls. ASDC was its other ally, the four-party alliance, under the
leadership of Prafulla Kumar Mahanta captured power with the AGP getting
29.70 per cent votes and 59 seats, CPI getting 1.95 per cent votes and three
seats, CPI-M 1.94 per cent votes and two seats and ASDC getting 1.98 per
cent votes and five seats. Mahanta's winnability was proved. The Congress
won 34 seats with 30.56 per cent votes. The AGP, formed on October 14,1985
following an end to the Assam movement with the signing of the Assam Accord
on August 15. The same year, came to power in the Assembly polls held on
December 16. But that year the party was swept to victory by the wave crated
by the six-year long agitation. It bagged 63 seats with 34.84 per cent
votes. Three independent MLAs later joined the party, the Congress secured
23 per cent votes and 25 seats. A newly-formed political party United
Minorities Front, which can be called a forerunner of the AUDF, got 10.85
per cent votes and 17 seats. Once in power, the AGP forgot the commitments
it had made to the people, i.e., to detect and deport illegal migrants. In
the 1991 elections, there was no wave. In its first tenure, the State
descended into total anarchy and ULFA militancy spread its tentacles.
Promising stability, the Congress returned to power. Devastated by defeats,
the AGP paid as little attention to the aliens issue as possible in its 1996
election manifesto. There was no clear mention of the issue save a routine
promise to implement the Assam Accord. It had already learnt the lessons of
opportunism taught by politics of votes.

The party went to the 2001 election under Mahanta's leadership. It got 20.02
per cent votes, 20 seats and lost power. The Congress fought the polls under
Tarun Gogoi's leadership, won 39.75 per cent votes, 71 seats and captured
power. Seven more MLAs including NCP's three, later joined the Congress
taking its tally of legislators to 78. Defeat invites discontent and digs
out disturbing issues. This time was no exception for the AGP, especially
the issue of secret killings severely eroded Mahanta's support base. Maybe,
the other senior leaders began to think the party would never come back to
power under Mahanta. At this time and that too all of a sudden, Mahanta's
alleged extra-marital affair received widespread publicity from an
overzealous media. This opportunity was put to full use and Mahanta was
replaced as party president by Brindabon Goswami. Forced by circumstances,
Mahanta formed a new party, the Asom Gana Parishad (Pragatishil). The 2006
election gave Brindabon Goswami a golden opportunity to prove his
winnability and ensure longevity of his leadership. But that was not to be
the ruling Congress got 31.08 per cent votes and 53 seats, and its ally
BPPF(H) got 3.72 per cent votes and 11 seats. Together they captured the
seat of power. The AGP secured 20.39 per cent votes and got 24 seats. The
AUDF won 9.03 per cent votes and ten seats. This was the second consecutive
victory for the Congress. According to a post-poll survey by the
Hindu-CNN-IBN: "In more ways than one, this is a verdict against the ruling
Congress. Between the last Assembly election and this one, the party lost
nearly nine percentage points. In any other State, such a negative swing and
a vote share of 31 per cent would have spelt a sure electoral disaster." The
AGP under Brindabon Goswami's leadership, failed to take advantage of this
situation. Mahanta contested from two constituencies and won from one. That
was the only seats his AGP(P) could manage. The party polled 2.5 per cent
votes. According to the survey, had the AGP and AGP(P) fought jointly they
would have bagged 30 seats, which means, power would have still eluded it.

In such a situation, it's only too natural that a party would jump into a
search for alternative leadership. A realignment has already been effected
at the top rung, Chandramohan Patowary has been made the leader of
Opposition and Phanibhushan Choudhury the working president, a clear
indicators of the diluted power Goswami now enjoys. But this is not enough,
thinks the party. It needs a leader with proven winnability. Twice it came
to power, both the times under Prafulla Kumar Mahanta's leadership. Thus
Mahanta is the prized target of the unification move. The move also includes
the Trinamool Gana Parishad and Purbanchaliya Loka Parishad, the parties
formed or revamped by AGP deserters. So, unification of regional forces is
in reality the unification of AGP splinter groups. But the All Assam
Student's Union (AASU) is playing spoilsport, which says Mahanta must be
left out of the unification move as, according to it, he has betrayed the
cause of the Assam movement despite being in power for two terms.

But will the AGP listen? Not likely. If you are too choosy, too committed to
ideology to keep party interests above that of the people and dig into the
shady past of a probable leader, you may at best be called a patriot but not
a vote-catcher. In power politics, a person's value is determined by his or
her vote-catching capabilities. Solely guided by this principle, the AGP is
now in search of a winnable leader.
(The Assam Tribune, September 10,2008)