[Air-L] Arab spring & social media evidence

Murray Turoff murray.turoff at gmail.com
Sat Sep 17 17:16:57 PDT 2011

Any one working on threat forecasting that can be used in planning for
emergencies might want to consider the special issue we are doing on
forecasting and planning for emergency preparedness and management.   The
paper by Leetaru is certainly relevant.

Call for Papers:  *Technological Forecasting and Social Change*

Special Issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency
preparedness and management”

Guest Editors

Murray Turoff, Information Systems, NJIT, Newark, NJ, USA. E-mail:
turoff at njit.edu

Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Information Systems, NJIT, Newark, NJ, USA. E-mail:
hiltz at njit.edu

Victor A. Bañuls, University Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain. E-mail:
vabansil at upo.es

Gerd Van Den Eede, Lessius University College, Belgium. E-mail:
gerd.van.den.eede at mechelen.lessius.eu

This issue will be devoted to planning and foresight in any phase or
meaningful combination of phases of Emergency Preparedness and Management:
mitigation, risk assessment, resiliency of organizations, training,
detection, preparation, response, recovery, and evaluation.  The planning
and foresight topic may also focus on a given area such as medical, fire,
hazards, infrastructure, type of disaster, law enforcement, etc.  However,
papers treating the integration of planning and foresight across different
functions and areas are of significant interest. Insights related to human,
organizational, and multi-organizational behavior and considerations are
valid topics as well.

Theory advancement is welcome but it must be tied to some degree of data
dealing with prior examples and/or case studies of disaster or crisis
situations.  This should be used to support the need for a new approach to
any of the emergency planning areas.

Case studies are very welcome provided they contain insights for potential
improvements in any aspects of planning or foresight methodologies.
Improving the effectiveness of collaborative planning, resiliency, and
actual collaboration among the many diverse organizations involved in
emergency situations is also a valid topic.

We will consider and certainly welcome position and requirements based
papers from practicing professionals in Emergency Management or Business
Continuity providing insight into problems and issues backed up by
experience, news sources, and/or the gathering of data.  This might also
include unique situations such as a new use of existing methodologies,
technology, or social media systems.  In such cases observations on the
requirements to extend the utility of such approaches could be
important.  Length
of the paper is not a factor but content is; we may accept short or long
papers if they are deemed to be useful and significant as well as valid.  The
lack of good case studies in this field is a significant factor in holding
back progress in planning.

*Papers Due December 1, 2011*

For questions you may send a message to any of the editors but please copy
Dr. Turoff as well. Manuscripts should be submitted online via Elsevier's
online submission system (see: http://www.ees.elsevier.com/tfs )

indicating in the letter that they are for this Special Issue. Please also
refer to TFSC's “Guide for Authors” for the styling and formatting
guidelines (see:

The Website for TFSC contains author information on formatting and
submitting an article as well as the journal ranking in planning:


On Sat, Sep 17, 2011 at 7:28 PM, nativebuddha <nativebuddha at gmail.com>wrote:

> here's a related (side-step) to the discussion:
> Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behavior using global news
> media tone in time and space
> Kalev Leetaru
> News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print
> and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the
> world today by Western intelligence agencies. Recent literature has
> suggested that computational analysis of large text archives can yield novel
> insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic
> events. Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news
> archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in
> Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President
> Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May
> 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden’s likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer
> radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look
> at the world’s cultural affiliations. Along the way, common assertions about
> the news, such as “news is becoming more negative” and “American news
> portrays a U.S.–centric view of the world” are found to have merit.
> Full text:
> http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3663/3040
> -robert
> On Sat, Sep 17, 2011 at 7:02 PM, Murray Turoff <murray.turoff at gmail.com>wrote:
>> There is a very interesting problem here.  The fundamental reasons might
>> have little to do with the use of social media except as way of people
>> being able to receive the information which in it self may explain the
>> cause
>> of
>> these revolutions.
>> I really think what is needed is a content analysis of Wikileaks.
>> There was a news article i read which might have been in the NYTimes
>> some time back which pointed out:
>> A lot of material in the famous release of u.s. secret cables by various
>> diplomats
>> and officials confirmed in the mind of many Arabs, especially the young
>> ones, the real
>> extend of corruptions among the leaders and their accumulation of wealth
>> as
>> a result of
>> their leadership positions.  While this was felt it was never really
>> proved
>> in the minds of
>> these people until they could read it online or in circulated copies of
>> materials downloaded
>> by others.
>> I did think this was a cause that was worth considering for the Arab
>> Spring.   Given they
>> already did not trust their regular news sources Wikileaks was considered
>> a
>> more trusted
>> source.
>> I would like to see a real content analysis of Wikileaks to compare to
>> other
>> explanations for
>> the Arab Spring.
>> --
>> --
>> *Distinguished Professor Emeritus
>> Information Systems, NJIT
>> homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff
>> *
>> _______________________________________________
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*Distinguished Professor Emeritus
Information Systems, NJIT
homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff

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